Year two. Five hundred and seventy one bets, eighty two and a half points to the good after commission, ten months in profit and two down. Last year was five hundred and ninety three bets and twenty eight points. Same questions, same stakes, three times the profit. I'd love to tell you I got cleverer. Mostly I got stricter.
The two losing months were May, which I've written about and have a plan for, and September, which was the worst month in the book at eight points down and had no lesson in it at all beyond the one I keep repeating. Sound bets lose in bunches sometimes. The other ten months ranged from a couple of points to nineteen, and the shape was the same as last year, a quiet spring, a good summer on the sand and the northern tracks, a dip in the autumn and a strong November.
What changed. Three things, and they're all about bets I didn't have. The thin card rule, written down in June and broken less since. The courses I leave alone, which cost me a bet at Nottingham I'd have lost. And the quarterly review putting the main win list on half stakes for the autumn, which looked like caution at the time and turned out to be the right weighting for a quarter where the other method ran better. If you're new, two weeks for £5 shows you the shape of it before you decide.
The worst dip was fourteen points, in the autumn, which is the September I mentioned. The longest run of losers was eight. The bank started the year at forty five and I've put the profit into it, so a point is still £100 and the bank is a lot more comfortable than it was. Nothing about the stakes changes because the year was good. The rules say the stake follows the bank, slowly, and the bank says not yet.
A few of you have asked whether I'd ever do this properly, with a website and a members' area rather than an email from my kitchen. I'm thinking about it. It would have to be done the way the book is done, every bet shown, losers included, in points, with the reason line, and nothing that reads like the adverts. If I can do that I will. If I can't, you'll keep getting the email.
Happy new year. Same stakes on the second.
Lee
PS: the comeback horses I've been testing on paper since the autumn are looking worth a go. Spring, jumps only, half a point. I'll explain before the first one goes in.
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
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Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 on day 15 for the winter pass to 31 March.
If your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
More from the notebook: Seventy seven bets in November, and the four point cap at work · Eleven points in February