November has been the busiest month in the book. Seventy seven bets, on twenty nine of the thirty days. The jumps are in full swing, the sand is still running, and the fancied horses the market has gone cold on are everywhere. It's also the best month in the book, nineteen points up. The two things are related, and so is a third, which is the four point cap.
On a month like this the cap does most of its work. There were days this month with five BSP Favourites, and on the twentieth there were five, and the main list still never had more than four points on. Two win bets at a point, and three places at a half or a quarter. The cap isn't a limit on bets. It's a limit on what a bad day can cost, and on a busy day it quietly makes me choose. Members see the cap at work on every busy card.
Here's how it chooses. If I've got five horses I like and the stakes add up to more than four, the one with the least in hand on price goes down to a place bet or stops being a BSP Favourite for the day. Not the one I like least. The one where the gap between my price and the market's is smallest, because that's the one with the least edge. Doing that every busy day for two years is, I think, worth more points than any single bet I've found.
The other thing a busy month does is make you tired. Twenty nine racing days, seventy seven bets written in and settled, a reason line for every one. I've noticed before that the bets I regret most come at the end of a long stretch. So the Sunday night routine got stricter this month, not looser, and three cards that would normally have had a glance got nothing.
Nineteen points. Walk On High at Plumpton at 7.73 on the third was the big one, a horse the market had completely gone off after a poor run and a line that said otherwise. The rest was ordinary. Short ones landing, places landing, a couple of bad days. A good month is mostly ordinary days. That's the bit nobody puts on a sales page. If you want November on your phone next year, two weeks is £5.
Lee
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
For only £5.
Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 on day 15 for the winter pass to 31 March.
If your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
More from the notebook: Year two of the book · The results pick the method, not me