The month the favourites all turned up

September has been absurd. Fifty seven bets, forty three winners. That's three in four, against the six in ten the book usually runs at, and the month finished nearly seven points up. Members have had every one of them.

Now the honest bit, before you get excited. Three in four is not a thing that happens. It's a thing that happened, in one month, because the short favourites all did what they should. A lot of those forty three were place bets at 1.2 and 1.3, which land most of the time anyway, and a run of them landing all at once makes the strike rate look like something it isn't. Seven points from forty three winners tells you how small most of them were.

The lesson, if there is one, is about what the rate is for. The rate doesn't make money. The price does. A month with forty three winners and seven points, and a month with twenty five winners and twelve points, are both good months, and the second is better. If I ever tell you about a strike rate without telling you the points next to it, stop reading me.

Why so many landed is probably the autumn. The flat is settling down. The two year olds have been seen, the handicappers have found their marks, the ground is honest. September and October are the months when the form book is most trustworthy on the flat, and a fancied horse that's been running well keeps running well. By November the jumps take over and the whole thing resets.

So enjoy the month, and don't change anything because of it. Same stakes, same questions. I've had a couple of emails asking whether to put more on while it's hot. No. A hot month is the month the next cold one is hiding in, and nobody can see the join.

Lee

PS: forty three of fifty seven, and every one is in the book.

More from the notebook: October, the month between seasons · A year of the book