People picture a tipster with a wall of screens and a phone that never stops. Mine is a kitchen table, the week's declarations, a pot of tea and about two hours on a Sunday night. Then forty minutes each morning before the first race. That's the job. I'll walk you through it, because I think knowing how dull it is helps you trust it.
Sunday is the week's shape. Which meetings, which days are thin, where the ground is. I'm not picking horses on Sunday. I'm marking the cards where my kind of bet tends to be, small fields, honest surfaces, the northern tracks and the sand, and the cards where it doesn't, the big handicaps and the festival days. A Tuesday at Catterick gets a tick. A Saturday at Ascot gets a glance.
Each morning is the real work. The overnight declarations are in, the early exchange prices are up, and I go through every race on the marked cards with the same questions. Front of the market. What's the last figure, what's the line before it, what's the mark, what's the trip, how long since it ran and since it won. Most races, the answer is no inside a minute. A few, it's maybe, and those get read properly. One or two, it's yes.
Then the price. A yes on the form is only half a bet. If the exchange has it at 1.6 and my questions say it should be 1.6, it's not a bet, it's a fair price. If it's 2.8 and I think it should be 2.0, that's the list. The reason line gets written, the stake gets set, and the email goes out before the first race.
After that I don't watch the prices. The bet goes on at starting price, so there's nothing to do until the race. I'll watch the ones I can. I write the result in that evening, winner or loser, and that's the day done. Members get the result of all that before the first race, and none of the Sunday night.
No screens, no contacts, no yard whispers. A book, a kettle and the same questions. September's been poor, by the way, four points down with a fortnight gone, and the Sunday night routine is exactly the same as it was in July. That's the only thing I can promise about it.
Lee
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
For only £5.
Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 on day 15 for the winter pass to 31 March.
If your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
More from the notebook: The results pick the method, not me · Why my reasons are one line