Open the racecard and next to each horse there's a row of figures. 2 1 3 7. Most people read the last one and stop. Seven, poor run, next horse. I read it the other way round, and it's the single thing that's made the most difference to my betting. It's also what the reason line on the members' card is: the rest of the line, read for you.
The figures are finishing positions, oldest on the left. So that horse was second, then won, then third, then seventh last time. The 7 is the one the market remembers, and the price this week will carry it. What the 7 doesn't tell you is anything useful.
Seventh of eight is a bad run. Seventh of twenty in a big handicap, beaten four lengths, is a respectable one. Seventh on heavy ground for a horse that wants it fast is no run at all, and the price is treating it as if it was. So the first thing I look for is how far it was beaten, and by what. A horse beaten a length and a half for seventh in a tight finish has run well. The form book just doesn't have a symbol for that.
Then the mark. Every handicapper gets a rating, and the horse that won off 78 and is now rated 74 has been given 4lb back for its trouble. If the 7 was the reason it's 74, the handicapper has done my job for me. The market rarely notices this on a Monday card.
Then the trip. Up or down in distance, and has it won over the new one. A horse that was seventh over a mile and a half and is dropping back to the mile it won over isn't trying something new, it's going home.
And then the days. How long since it ran, how long since it won. I've stopped treating a quick return as a worry. Trainers measure fitness now in ways they couldn't twenty years ago, and a horse out again in ten days is usually out because it's well. A long break is the opposite. It's not a problem, but it's a question.
Put all of that together with the price and the 7 either explains itself or it doesn't. When it does, I move on. When it doesn't, that's the bet.
Lee
PS: an F or a P in the line is a different conversation, and a longer one. I'll come to it.
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