October, the month between seasons

October is a point and a half down with ten days to go, and it's not a bad month. It's an October. The flat is finishing, the jumps are starting, and for about three weeks neither form book is worth much.

The flat horses are tired or being put away. The ones still running are often running because the owner wants one more go, which is not the same as the horse being ready. Meanwhile the jumpers are coming back from their summer off, and a horse that was a good novice in March is a question mark in October. Fit or not, improved or not, the same horse as last season or a different one. The market guesses, I guess, and guessing is where the book goes quiet.

So the list in October is thin and mostly on the sand, where the horses have been running all year and the form hasn't reset. Southwell again. Wolverhampton. The handful of jumps bets I've had were on horses that ran well in the spring and came back fit, and two of the three won, which is fine but not enough to carry a month.

The thing I'd say to anyone following the list is to expect this every year. The book has a shape to it. Good autumn on the flat, a dip while the seasons change, then the winter jumps where the small fields and honest ground give the place bets a lot to do. If the dip bothers you, look at the whole year rather than the month. If it still bothers you, that's the moment to ask whether forty points is enough bank for your nerves, because it has to be enough for the October dip or it isn't enough. If you're thinking of joining for the winter, this is the fortnight to do it, before the November cards get busy.

Cheltenham's first meeting of the season is at the end of the week. I'll watch most of it and bet in a bit of it, and by the middle of November the book will know where it is again.

Lee

More from the notebook: The month the favourites all turned up · A year of the book