Quarterly review done, and the main win list is on half stakes again from Wednesday. It was on a full point for January to March, and it earned it, eleven points in February. So you'd expect it to keep the point. It doesn't, and I want to explain the decision because it's the kind that would look like nerves if I didn't.
The quarterly review looks at the last two years for each method, recent months counting double, and gives the biggest stake to the one with the best return. That sets the base for the quarter. Then at the start of each month the book looks at the last six completed months on their own and asks whether shifting some of the stake from one method to the other would have paid. If it clearly would, the stake shifts for the month. If it wouldn't, nothing moves. On that view, the other method has edged ahead, because its last six months have been steadier and its two years are a touch better. So it gets the full point from April and part of the main list gets half.
My opinion is that the main list is fine and will be fine. My opinion doesn't get a vote. If I overrode the review every time I disagreed with it, I'd be back to picking the method that found last month's winners, and that's the thing the review exists to stop. The decision is made on bets that have already run, before the month starts, and it holds for the month whatever happens in the first week of it.
What this means for you is simple. Some BSP Favourites will have half a point next to them that had a point last quarter. That's not a lack of faith in the horse. It's the weighting. The comeback bets, which start in April, are separate from all of this and go on at half a point for their own reasons. Members never have to decide the stake. It's on the card, set by the review.
There's a comfort in it, honestly. On a bad fortnight I don't have to decide anything. The stakes were decided on the first of the quarter by a set of figures, and all I do is read the cards. People who've never run a book don't understand how much of betting is protecting yourself from your own opinions. The review is most of my protection.
Cheltenham cost two points, March is a point and a half down, and April starts with Aintree and a new bet. On we go.
Lee
PS: the review on the first of July will look again. If the main list's spring is good, it goes back to a point. If it isn't, it doesn't. Either way you'll read it here.
Update, 1 July 2026. The July review put the whole list back on a full point, and it has stayed there since. The spring was good enough.
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More from the notebook: Eleven bets in Festival week · Eleven points in February