Last year I had four bets in Festival week, none at Cheltenham, and the book was level. This year I had eleven, a few of them at the course, and the book is two points down. I'd like to say I got braver. What actually happened is that the prices were a touch bigger this year, enough horses passed the questions, and they ran like fancied horses at the Festival do, which is well, and not always well enough.
Six of the eleven won. That's not far off my usual rate. The problem was that the five that didn't were win bets at fair prices and the six that did included four places at next to nothing. Wodhooh placed on the Thursday at 1.49, which was a fine bet and paid for a sandwich. That's the shape of a losing week with a winning strike rate, and it's worth knowing that shape exists.
The lesson is one I've written before and clearly needed again. At the Festival the market is right more often than anywhere else. A fancied horse at 3.5 at Cheltenham has had its price argued over by thousands of people for weeks. A fancied horse at 3.5 at Plumpton on a Monday has had it argued over by a few dozen. I know which argument I'd rather be on the other side of, and it isn't the Festival one.
Yet I don't regret the eleven. Each one passed the same questions I ask every day, and I'd rather have a method that bets when the questions say yes than one that goes quiet because the meeting is famous. If I start skipping bets because of the name on the racecard, I've got an opinion, not a method. Two points is the cost of being consistent, and consistency is the thing I'm selling you. That consistency is the whole point of following a list rather than a tip, and it's what you're joining.
The month is a touch down overall, a point and a half. Some of that is the Festival and some is March doing what March does, soft ground and horses that are nearly ready. April has Aintree, which has been kinder, and something new that I've been testing on paper since Christmas.
Lee
PS: the something new is a bet on horses that didn't finish last time. Jumps only, strict rules, half stakes. I'll explain it properly when the first one goes in.
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