Thursday at Aintree cost me two and a half points and I'd have every one of the bets again. Let me show my working, because the difference between a bad bet and a bet that lost is most of what this blog is about.
Lulamba at 1.52 was the shortest. He was the best horse in the race on everything he'd done, the price was short because everyone could see it, and I had him because 1.52 on a horse that wins that race seven times in ten still pays. He got beaten. That happens three times in ten, and this was one of the three.
Impaire Et Passe was the comeback bet I flagged last week, at 5.8, half a point. Fell last time while going well, back inside sixty days, a touch over my price limit when I looked in the morning, under it by the off. He ran well and didn't win. That's the comeback bet doing exactly what it's for, losing half a point when it loses and paying four or five when it wins. One of those in six and it pays for itself.
The third was a fancied horse at 3.62 in a race where I thought the market had been put off by one poor run. It had, and the horse ran poorly again, which is the one of the three I'll think about. Sometimes the last run is telling you something and the rest of the line is out of date. That's the risk you're paid for, and on Thursday I wasn't.
What I want you to take from the day isn't the losers. It's that none of them was a bad bet. A bad bet is one you shouldn't have had at the price, and there's a different feeling in your stomach when one of those loses, because you knew. These were sound bets that lost, and over a season sound bets that lose are just the price of the ones that win.
Friday and Saturday went better, the week came out a touch ahead, and April is sitting about level with a fortnight to go. There's a run coming somewhere in the next month, good or bad. There always is. Members had the Friday and Saturday too, which is how a week on the list comes out ahead.
Lee
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More from the notebook: Eleven bets in Festival week · Royal Ascot 2026, the week I watched again