I didn't have a single bet at Aintree this week, and I had no bet in the National. Both of those were decisions, not accidents, and the week still cost me four and a half points, which I'll come to.
The one winner first. Bondbroker at Fakenham on the Friday at 2.0, while the whole country was watching the Grand National meeting. Small field, a horse that had been going the right way all season, and a price that was a touch bigger than his form deserved because nobody was looking at Fakenham. That's my kind of bet. The horse the market has slightly forgotten, on a card the market has forgotten altogether.
The National is the opposite of that. Thirty four runners, four and a half miles, thirty fences, and a form book that tells you less than it does for any other race in the calendar. The favourite wins now and then. More often the race is decided by what happens at the first fence, who gets a clear run on the second circuit and which horse happens to have the stamina on the day.
I'm not saying don't bet on it. Have a tenner on something you like the name of and enjoy the afternoon, that's what the race is for. What I'm saying is that it isn't a race where my way of reading form has any edge, so my points stay in my pocket. The same goes for most of the big handicaps with twenty plus runners. The price is fair enough, I just can't see the race clearly enough to know.
That's an uncomfortable thing to admit on a tipping blog. The reason I'm admitting it is that knowing which races to leave alone has made me more money than any clever angle. Every bet I don't have on a race I can't read is a point still in the bank for the race I can. The two or three a day that do pass go out to members before the first race.
Three days of Aintree on the telly, seven bets elsewhere, one winner and six losers, four and a half points down. Not a good week, and not a week I'd have changed, because the six that lost were sound bets at fair prices on quiet cards. The jumps season is nearly done now and the flat is coming, which brings its own problems. More on those next month.
Lee
PS: the horse I liked in the National finished seventh. I'd have been annoyed, and I'd have been right not to back it.
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More from the notebook: Cheltenham, the honest week · The jumps are back on Friday