The book is well ahead for the year, and March has been the quiet month that every year seems to have. A run of seconds, a couple of odds on shots turned over on soft ground, and a fortnight where the place bets did the work. The month is a few points down.
I'm writing this because of what I nearly did about it, which was change things. There's a voice in every punter's head that says the method has stopped working and something needs fixing. Have bigger stakes to catch up. Have smaller ones to protect what's left. Skip the all weather. Add the all weather. Back the second favourite instead because the favourites have gone cold.
Every one of those is a way of letting a bad fortnight make your decisions for you. The method didn't stop working in March. The results in March were what a method that wins six times in ten looks like when the four come together, and they will, roughly once a season, for as long as I do this.
So here's what I actually did. I read back through the month's bets to see if any of them were bets I shouldn't have had. There were two, both horses I'd talked myself into on a Saturday because the card was thin. The rest were sound bets that lost, which is a different thing entirely. Then I carried on. Same stakes, same rules, same book.
The two Saturday bets are the only lesson in the month, and it's the same lesson every time. A thin card is not a reason to find a bet. It's a reason to have a cup of tea.
A couple of people who follow the list emailed to ask whether to stop until it picks up. I understand the feeling and the answer is no, for a plain reason. If you only bet when it's going well, you'll miss the first fortnight of every good run, because nobody knows it's started until it's half over. The bank is forty points so that a month like this is a shrug, not a crisis. Mine has lost about four of them. That's what it's for. If you want the list without the second guessing, two weeks is £5.
Lee
PS: April started with two winners on the Monday. I'd love to tell you I knew.
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
For only £5.
Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 on day 15 for the winter pass to 31 March.
If your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
More from the notebook: The month the favourites all turned up · October, the month between seasons