The first one went in on Wednesday at Southwell and won at 2.44. So now's the time to explain what it is, because you'll see them among the BSP Favourites from here on and they look odd next to the usual short ones.
A horse that fell or was pulled up last time gets an F or a P in the form book. Most punters see that letter and move on, and the market moves on with them. The price next time is bigger than the horse's form deserves, and that is the whole idea. Not every faller. The ones where the F is hiding a horse that was going well.
A fall and a pulled up aren't the same story, though the form book writes them the same way. A horse that falls at the third last while travelling in the first three was having a good day until it wasn't. A horse pulled up two out was usually being beaten anyway. I only want the first kind, and the rest of the line tells you which is which.
So here are the rules, and they're strict on purpose. Jumps only, because that's where falls happen. The horse has to have been in the first three before the fall. It has to be back within sixty days, because after that something else is going on. And the price has to be 5.0 or under on the exchange, because beyond that I'm guessing and the point of this is not to guess. Every one goes on at half a point, win only. If the whole idea is wrong, it costs half what a normal mistake costs.
I've had it on paper since Christmas and the paper said it was worth trying. That's not the same as it working. It's a small bet on a small number of horses and I'll tell you honestly how it goes, and if the figures say stop, it stops.
The rest of the list is unchanged. Same questions, same stakes, same four point cap on the day, and the comeback bets sit outside that cap in their own little pot. You'll know them among the BSP Favourites because I'll say so, and because they're the only ones with an F in the line and a reason underneath it. Members see each one flagged on the card with the reason it qualifies.
Lee
PS: Aintree this week. There's a comeback horse I like in the Thursday card at a big price, which is exactly the sort I said I'd be careful with. Half a point.
Update, 31 August 2026. Five months in: 51 comeback bets, 21 winners, comfortably ahead at half a point each. The best of them, Mojito Des Mottes at 9.69, is here. Still half a point, still jumps only.
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More from the notebook: The longest run in the book, and why it changed nothing · Pulled up is not fell