How I pick the horses
An excuse explains the last race. What I want to know is what's changed for this one, and whether the price still makes sense.
Read how it worksThey closed my accounts for winning on favourites.
Fine. Betfair can't.
Most punters back favourites because they're favourites. I back the ones the market has just lost its nerve on, two or three a morning, and I've beaten the market three years running.
- I made 33% ROI backing fancied horses that fell last time out.
- Every win bet carries a place bet, and my place bets land nearly 8 times in 10.
- +190 points since January 2024, every one at Betfair SP.
High strike rate6 in every 10 bets winSee every bet
Secure placesNearly 8 in 10 place bets landWin and place, explained
£18 made on every £100Return on stakes in 2026, after commissionExplore results
Betfair Exchange onlyEvery bet at starting price. Nobody limits youWhy the exchange
Historical replay of my rules, January 2024 to 17 October 2026, at Betfair starting price after 2% commission. The 2026 figure runs to 17 October.
Built to barely lose
A horse's last run is a starting point, not the whole horse
A horse is short in the betting for one of two reasons. Either it's the best horse in the race, or everyone remembers its last run.
Only the first kind pays, and telling them apart is the whole job.
So I look behind the last result, and I read it differently from most of the ring.
Form2137most punters stop at the 7
- A fall and a pulled up both read as a bad day. They're opposite stories. One horse was going well when it happened.
- A quick return isn't the worry it used to be. Trainers can measure fitness now, so I read the days since a run against the horse, not against an old rule of thumb.
- Breeding says where a horse should get the trip. Its own record says where it does. I use the record.
- The likeliest winner is often the worst bet in the race, because the whole ring is already on it.
- A reassuring run of winners isn't a reason to keep a bet. The return is, and I've dropped bets that landed most of the time.
None of that means much on its own. Put together, with the price, it tells me whether something has changed for the better.
The same questions go to a horse that fell last time, and that's where the comeback bets come from. They go on at half a point, and they've paid 33p on every £1 so far.
If something has changed for the better, then, the horse goes on your list. If all I've got is a hard luck story, you never hear its name. Either way, you get the two I'd put my own money on, and I do.
The place bets I almost hit every time
Most of those horses go on twice, to win and to place, because the two bets do different jobs. The place bet lands nearly 8 times in 10 at an average 1.37, so it keeps your bank steady while the winners are slow. The win bet is where the +190 points comes from.
The results pick the method, not me
Behind the list there's more than one way of reading that form, and I run several side by side, keeping score on all of them. Every three months the one with the best return over the last two years, recent months weighted double, gets the biggest stake for the quarter ahead. That decision is always made on bets that have already run, and ideas that sounded clever have been binned because the figures didn't move.
None of it needs the trainer's gallop reports, and I don't pretend to have them. What I've got is the form book, days since the last run, the official mark and the BSP, scored on every bet since January 2024. Why I back these horses.
In practice that means two horses most days. A big Saturday can bring more, but the main list never has more than four points on in a day. One calm morning at a time, and no single bet ever decides your month.
18 of the last 22 months finished in profit
Written the way a racecard writes form. P is a month in profit, L a month down. The four Ls are there because they happened.
PJan 25
PFeb 25
PMar 25
PApr 25
LMay 25
PJun 25
PJul 25
PAug 25
LSep 25
POct 25
PNov 25
PDec 25
PJan 26
PFeb 26
LMar 26
PApr 26
PMay 26
PJun 26
PJul 26
PAug 26
PSep 26
LOct 26
Never two losing months in a row. Historical replay of my rules at Betfair starting price after 2% commission. See the points for every month.
What betting on my shortlist looks like
Every tipster shows you the good spells. These are the good ones and the bad ones, side by side.
| Longest winning run | 16 bets in a row |
|---|---|
| Longest losing run | 9 bets, in 1,828 |
| Most racing days in a row with a winner | 28 |
| Most racing days in a row without one | 4 |
| Months in profit | 25 of 34 |
| Best month | +24.1 points, August 2026 |
Every bet is on the results page:
Have a look round
Every result, month by month
All 1,828 of my bets laid out like the old teletext pages. Flick through the months with the coloured buttons.
See the results
My story
Twenty odd years of betting on horses, and the spreadsheet that showed me which favourites were worth it.
Read my story
Why everything goes on at Betfair
Bookmakers cut my stakes the moment I started winning. On the exchange, nobody does.
Read the postWhat you'd need, and how it arrives
The bank and the stakes
- A 40 point bank.
- Win bets are 1 point, and in some quarters half. Comeback bets (horses that fell last time out) are half, and place bets a quarter or a half, with the stake on every tip.
- Two horses most days, a few more on a big Saturday. Never more than four points a day on the main list.
- The worst dip in the record took 14 of the 40 points. Keep the bank and a bad spell never worries you.
How the bets reach you
- By email every racing morning, before the first race.
- The same card on Telegram if you'd rather have it on your phone.
- Every past card and the running results in your members' area.
- On a quiet day, one line saying there's nothing on.
Everything at Betfair Starting Price, so there's no rush to get on.
I tip at Betfair Starting Price, and the market can take a proper stake without moving.
I only tip favourites on Betfair, so there's a lot of money available before the off. That's why a £500 bet doesn't move the price. And most importantly, you never get gubbed.
At a bookmaker
£20 on.
The price gets trimmed.
Your stakes get limited.
Account closed for winning. I've had it done.
On the Betfair Exchange
£100 on, or a lot more.
The same starting price as everyone.
Nobody limits you.
Winners you can actually get paid on.
£19,054 at £100 a point. £95,270 at £500.
What members say
"Member quote to come. One or two sentences in his own words, including a quiet week if he mentions one."
"Member quote to come. Something specific, like how the morning email fits round work."
The first members joined in October 2026. Their words go up here as they come in, with their say so.
See exactly what I do for two weeks.
For only £5.
Every bet I make, by email each racing morning, with the stake and my line on why. Pay £5 today, then £49 for the winter pass unless you cancel before day 15.
If your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. Cancel with one email. Nothing renews after 31 March. Full details.
Pricing
Best value
Twelve months
£95 One payment. Flat season included.
£46 more than the winter pass
Join for a yearIf your first month on the £49 loses, I refund it. How the refund works.